SCO Sustainable Development Forum: global middle class to expand by three billion in twenty years

Given current trends, achieving all UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030 is no longer feasible, Igor Makarov, Head of the School of World Economy at HSE University, stated at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Sustainable Development Forum in Moscow. He highlighted the importance of preparing for future challenges by promoting new, non-Western development models.

“As widely recognized, the UN’s formal dialogue on sustainable development post-2030 is slated to commence only in 2027,” Makarov recalled and added: “Nevertheless, at analytical and national levels, this conversation has been ongoing actively for some time, encompassing frameworks such as BRICS, G20 experts, and various regional bodies.

“I would categorize this discourse into three levels. The most straightforward involves the goals themselves. It is evident that the global landscape today contrasts sharply with the period of 2013–2014 when the current SDGs were established. Several critical issues remain unaddressed, including disaster prevention, vaccine accessibility, artificial intelligence, digital public infrastructure, among others.

“However, merely extending the list of goals beyond 2030 is unlikely to lead to their full realization by any new timeframe. Consequently, the second level involves debating mechanisms — mainly, financing. The current gap in sustainable development funding stands at USD 4 trillion. Addressing this shortfall requires reforms in international financial institutions alongside the creation of novel platforms that mobilize private capital through blended finance and public-private partnerships.

“Finally, the most intricate level of debate pertains to broad approaches. It may well be necessary to conceive a fresh narrative for sustainable development, a revamped goal-setting paradigm, and a fundamentally new economic development model. This urgency arises as approximately three billion individuals are expected to join the global middle class over the next twenty years. The pressing question is whether this expansion will proceed through legacy technologies and Western consumption models or will embrace innovations aligned with ecological limits and sustainability.”

The Forum is organized by the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Relations with International Organizations to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals Boris Titov, together with the SCO Secretariat, supported by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, and with the Roscongress Foundation acting as the operator.

The primary aim of the Forum is to address the current status of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) programme both globally and within SCO countries, explore its new phase after 2030, discuss the SCO’s role in shaping a new global development architecture, share best ESG practices in the SCO region, and examine prospects for collaborative projects and initiatives in sustainable development.